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Markets Pricing-In 50 bps Next Week? Indexes at Record Highs

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Thursday, September 11, 2025

After a mostly in-line inflation report ahead of today’s opening bell from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a surprise spike in new jobless claims spurred markets to record highs today. The Dow gained +617 points, +1.36%, to an all-time record closing high 46,108. The S&P 500 grew +55 points, +0.85%, to 6587 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq added +157 points, +0.72%, to an all-time high 22,043. Only the small-cap Russell 2000 is off its all-time high from late 2021, but still made +1.83% today.

With an Inflation Rate of +2.9%, as expected, and Initial Jobless Claims soaring to four-year highs, there is an argument to be made that our economic set-up is worsening. Yet in the “bad news is good news” set-up we’ve grown accustomed to over the past year-plus, both of these metrics souring can only mean one thing: lower interest rates.

When the Fed meets for its first FOMC meeting since July, it will do so with the understanding that the labor market has created roughly 1 million fewer jobs over the past year than originally thought. It also sees an economy only moderately affected by tariff policy in place since this spring. We’ve seen no spikes to prices on either the wholesale (PPI) or retail (CPI) sides at this time.

Therefore, while +2.9% is still a ways off the Fed’s optimal +2.0% inflation rate and doesn’t appear to be moving back down anytime soon, much rests on the Fed’s other half of the dual mandate: full employment. It’s difficult to see how a rate cut of a quarter or half a percent will suddenly improve the labor market, but freeing up some money appears to be resoundingly approved by investors today.

In fact, it would be quite easy to make the argument that at these levels, what market participants are currently pricing-in is a 50 basis-point (bps) cut, not a 25 bps one. You’ll recall September of last year rang in the same move: after over a year of inaction, the Fed first moved by 50 bps, then 25 in each of the next two meetings.
 

Earnings Reports After the Close: Adobe, RH


Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) recorded beats on both top and bottom lines in its fiscal Q3 report after today’s close, while also inching up guidance from previous levels. Earnings of $5.31 per share outperformed the $5.17 in the Zacks consensus, on record-high $5.99 billion in revenues which demonstrated +11% growth year over year. Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), of the sort Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) made famous earlier this week, came in at +$20.44 billion — +13% year over year. The company also guided higher for next quarter and fiscal year.

RH (RH - Free Report) is bouncing off its lows in today’s after-hours trading session, following its fiscal Q2 earnings miss following the closing bell. Earnings of $2.93 per share missed the $3.19 expected, on revenues of $899 million which were short of the $905.5 million analysts were expecting. The company had successfully moved almost all its manufacturing out of China, but a 50% tariff on rugs made in India is helping pull margins down.

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